BRITAIN may already have enough herd immunity to prevent a second wave of coronavirus, scientists have claimed

Experts suggest a sizeable number of people may have immunity because of Covid-19's similarity to the common cold.  This confirms the theory of Swiss researcher Beda M Stadler, covered on this blog on July 8

While super-spreaders infect many, it appears some people are effectively super-blockers and enjoy natural resistance to the killer bug, say Oxford University boffins.

The scientists have written about "host resistance" to the new virus and a possibly lower threshold of herd immunity needed to fend off further devastating Covid-19 outbreaks.

Their paper, published on Medrxiv, says that it is widely believed the threshold needed to enjoy herd immunity against the new disease is more than 50 per cent.

But, its research suggests that if just 20 per cent of the UK's population has in-built resistance to Covid-19, a second wave is not inevitable.

Herd immunity refers to where enough people in a population have immunity to an infection to be able to effectively stop that disease from spreading.

For herd immunity, it doesn’t matter whether the protection comes from vaccination, or from people having had the disease. The crucial thing is that they are immune.

The Oxford Uni study suggests the epidemiological limit to reach herd immunity "may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus".

This is feasible, they add, if people have inbuilt "resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses".

The report says: "Significant reductions in expected mortality can also be seen in settings where a fraction of the population is resistant to infection."

Results "suggest that sufficient herd-immunity may already be in place to substantially mitigate a potential second wave", the researchers add.

"It has been evident from the outset that the risk of severe disease and death from Covid-19 is not uniformly distributed across all age classes.

"The bulk of deaths among the over 12 million cases reported worldwide are occurring among older age classes and those with [pre-existing conditions].

“It is further becoming clear that risk of infection is also not uniformly distributed across the population," the reports says.

Scientists at Oxford point to those managing to fend off the virus as having "high functioning immunity".

And, if antibodies to the disease are built up in "10-20 per cent" of the population, "this is entirely compatible with local levels of immunity having approached or even exceeded the herd immunity threshold.

"In which case the risk and scale of resurgence is lower than currently perceived," say the researchers.

SOURCE

The journal article behind the story above:

The impact of host resistance on cumulative mortality and the threshold of herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2

Jose Lourenco et al.

Abstract

It is widely believed that the herd immunity threshold (HIT) required to prevent a resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 is in excess of 50% for any epidemiological setting. Here, we demonstrate that HIT may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses. The drop in HIT is proportional to the fraction of the population resistant only when that fraction is effectively segregated from the general population; however, when mixing is random, the drop in HIT is more precipitous. Significant reductions in expected mortality can also be observed in settings where a fraction of the population is resistant to infection. These results help to explain the large degree of regional variation observed in seroprevalence and cumulative deaths and suggest that sufficient herd-immunity may already be in place to substantially mitigate a potential second wave.

SOURCE

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Media Should Do a Mea Culpa as French Analysis Offers a Stunning Observation About Hydroxychloroquine Use

We have been told repeatedly by health experts to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine and the other meds prescribed with it we need strict clinical trials. These are studies where some patients receive medication, and some do not. For many healthcare providers, this is a noxious thought if there is evidence to believe a treatment may work.

How do you ethically deny a potential treatment to an eligible patient to conduct a study? So-called double-blind studies described above are the preferred method advocated by Dr. Fauci. These double-blind studies allow people to die in the name of “science” if a drug is effective. They are in the “control group.”

There are ethical issues with this approach that researches at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center addressed with a new concurrent trial based on machine learning developed following the H1N1 pandemic. This method has been ignored by the NIH and FDA approval processes.

Such was the fate of the hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and zinc combination. Scientifically there was every reason to believe it would work. Clinically, doctors saw results when directly treating patients. Several recommended that the drug be produced in sufficient amounts and given early and outpatient.

President Trump expressed optimism based on studies in France and China, and the media freaked out. The president’s political opposition would go on to cling to any proof the drug would not work and suppress any information that it would. This politicization culminated in the horrific study published by Lancet that the publication quietly retracted.

However, the damage was already done. The World Health Organization suspended trials immediately after the study published in Lancet. Switzerland, which had been using the treatment, prohibited the use of the drug in COVID-19 shortly after that on May 27th. The retraction was so stealth that the ban was not lifted in Switzerland until June 11th.

This window allowed French researchers to analyze what happened in the entire population of COVID-19 patients during the ban. They used the case fatality rate (CFR) as the measure observed. The graph is stunning.

hydroxychloroquine

It also the only period where the Swiss CFR approached or exceeded that in France where there has been no use of hydroxychloroquine outside a few isolated trials.

The CFR returned to the highest level it had been since early in the pandemic at over 15%. Upon resumption of treatment with hydroxychloroquine, it returned to below 5%.

For those who are not convinced of the observational result, we conducted a statistical difference test by comparing the three periods: May 28th – June 8th, June 9th – 22nd, June 23rd – July 6th . The period from June 9th till the 22nd is that in which the index increased some 13 days after the suspension of hydroxychloroquine. There is of course an effect of delay between stopping the prescription of the drug and possible deaths, which explains the delay of 13 days.

We therefore observe that for the period from the 28th of May till the 8th of June, the index is 2.39% and then drops to 11.52% or 4.8 times more and then drops to 3%.

When testing for statistical significance between the various observations, the difference is significant at 99% with a p <0.0001. 13 days after the HCQ prescription was resumed, the index dropped to 3% and this was again a significant effect.

For those who have forgotten statistics, a p-value of 0.05 or less indicates statistical significance. If the graph is not convincing, a confidence interval of 99% in a statistical analysis based on full population data should be.

Between this information and a study published by researchers in India, it is time for the media to do a mea culpa. Their hysteria convinced politicians in the United States to ban or restrict the drug. As Dr. David Samadi said on The Larry O’Connor Show, the decision to use this treatment needs to be left between a doctor and a patient. He has been disturbed by the interference by the government into the doctor-patient relationship.

Dr. Samadi re-emphasized the use of hydroxychloroquine cocktail is effective in early COVID-19 according to clinical experience and multiple studies. The FDA and NIH need to tell governors and other officials who have banned its use to lift their bans ASAP and tell pharmacists to stop questioning doctors who prescribe it.

It is far preferable to keep people out of the hospital using an old, inexpensive, and demonstrably safe and effective medication combination. There is no reason other than profit to wait until patients are hospitalized to get a new medication IV. If the media or the public health agencies cared about public health, this would be broadcast loudly and often. It is becoming increasingly clear they care more about politics.

SOURCE

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IN BRIEF

Trump shakes up campaign leadership, demotes manager Brad Parscale and promotes Chris Christie campaign veteran Bill Stepien (The Hill)

Liberty University slaps New York Times with $10 million suit for "made up" coronavirus story (Washington Examiner)

U.S. weighs sweeping and deserved travel ban on Chinese Communist Party members (The New York Times)

"Disrupt and destroy MS-13": DOJ announces first-ever terrorism charges in nationwide gang crackdown (Fox News)

The Trump administration said it would no longer require foreign students to attend in-person classes during the coronavirus pandemic in order to remain in the country (The New York Times)

Florida department of health exposed for massively overreporting positive cases (The Blaze)

"I feel fine": Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt tests positive (The Daily Wire)

Can you get infected twice? Researchers say possibility is "certainly real" (USA Today)

China economy expands 3.2% after 6.8% contraction in previous quarter (Time)

August surprise: Tsunami of bankruptcies forecast as government aid runs dry (The Washington Times)

As frivolous lawsuits surge, liability reform remains top GOP priority (Washington Examiner)

Walmart will require shoppers to wear masks; other retailers urged to follow (NPR)

Atlanta police charge suspect in the perverse death of eight-year-old black girl Secoriea Turner (Fox News)

National Museum of African American History and Culture publishes multi-racist graphic linking "rational linear thinking" and "nuclear family" to white culture (National Review)

Court renders unconstitutional part of major Virginia gun control measure that would have virtually outlawed private handgun purchases for people under 21 (The Washington Free Beacon)

Policy: Joe Biden bends the knee to AOC on climate (Washington Examiner)

California rejected 100,000 mail-in ballots because of mistakes (AP)

Banks stand to make $18 billion in PPP processing fees (The Intercept)

NBA bans custom jerseys with "FreeHongKong," but allows "Burn Jews" and "KillCops" (The Federalist)

Local governments weigh major tax hikes to plug coronavirus-induced shortfalls (Fox News)

Policy: The two-party system isn't the problem. It's nationalization. (Washington Examiner)

Mainstream media mocks rise in crime, victims (Boston Herald)

Los Angeles County's black DA blasts Black Lives Matter for targeting her, showing up at her home, and speaks out against abolishing police (The Blaze)

Wisconsin's vote-by-mail looked bad. It was actually worse. (Hot Air)

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