A New York paradox

It would appear that a lot of New Yorkers broke the rules.  Avoiding one another in New York would be pretty difficult

At the beginning of March, a lively debate took place about whether Britain should pursue a strategy of "herd immunity" – allowing coronavirus to spread until so many people had developed antibodies that it no longer posed a threat to public health – or place the entire country under lockdown. As is well-known, Boris Johnson initially embraced the former, saying the public needed to take the virus "on the chin", then performed a U-turn and imposed a full lockdown on March 23.

But recent data coming out of New York reveals that this was a false dichotomy. Sixty-eight per cent of people who took antibody tests at a clinic in the corona neighbourhood of Queens received positive results, suggesting that, in this area at least, the population is already close to achieving "herd immunity". This is in spite of the fact that New York imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the United States.

SOURCE 

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Shock Poll Shows Trump on Track to Win Reelection

A new poll conducted by the Washington based Democracy Institute for the Sunday Express shows President Trump tied with his rival Joe Biden at 47 percent, but surpassing him in the electoral college 309 to 229.

These positive results for Trump come amid a constant drumbeat of negative media coverage in recent weeks that paints his electoral chances in November as virtually nil.

According to the shock poll, Trump is “on course to win the crucial swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where he outpolls Vice President Biden by 48 percent to 44 percent.”

According to David Maddox, the political editor of the Sunday Express, the poll indicates that the Black Lives Matter riots have created a backlash that is helping Trump.

The poll was conducted Jul 1–3, before the president went to the Mount Rushmore to make a speech that was very well received by most Americans, but furiously derided by Democrats and their allies in the corporate media.

SOURCE 

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A who’s who of conservative luminaries has unleashed a decidedly unwoke message for police-slamming, statue-toppling, history-canceling leftist protesters: “You will not prevail.”

This is a start but action rather than words is what is needed.  If State governors won't unleash their police on the vandals, Federal officers should be sent in

The six-minute video posted by the Media Research Center offered a “conservative answer to the mob,” featuring 15 leading figures on the right and Republican lawmakers responding to the “protesters, hoodlums and rioters out in force these last several weeks.”

“You will not prevail. America will prevail,” said MRC President Brent Bozell in the “We Hold These Truths: Our Answer to the Mob” video posted Tuesday. “Today, tomorrow and by the grace of God, forever.”

The speakers, working from a script by National Review’s Rich Lowry, praised Founding Fathers George Washington, Thomas Jefferson and Abraham Lincoln, whose statues have recently come under attack, as well as the military, first responders, free speech, free markets and American values.

“This is the greatest country the world has ever known,” said David Bozell, president of ForAmerica. “A beacon of liberty, an engine of wealth.”

The video also features one of the last appearances by country singer Charlie Daniels, who died Monday at age 83. “You will not redefine America or frighten good, honest Americans into submission,” Mr. Daniels said in the video.

Sen. Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee Republican, cheered “America’s real heroes,” including the military, medical workers and law enforcement. Sen. Mike Lee, Utah Republican, warned that police were needed to “protect the vulnerable and to keep dangerous communities from descending into chaos.”

“Are there bad players? Of course,” said Tea Party Patriots co-founder Jenny Beth Martin. “But don’t lie about the police. Don’t smear them as racist. Don’t dismiss that they have to put their lives on the line every single day with lowlifes who harass and threaten them.”

Indeed, there was plenty of red meat for the base, including blasts at the “ignorant mob,” “your vandalism and cancellations,” and “the hateful rot of an ideology that you champion.”

“Who suffers the most from lawlessness?” asked syndicated radio host Dana Loesch. “It’s unquestionably the innocents in inner cities caught in the crossfire of thugs, gangs and rioting mobs.”

Said political commentator Deneen Borelli: “How dare you intimidate and beat people with whom you disagree.”

“We live in the last best home of mankind,” said Family Research Council President Tony Perkins. “And we’re not about to lose it to a bunch of fanatics aided and abetted by a complicit media and cowardly corporations.”

SOURCE 

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Economic Lockdowns DON'T Save Lives – But They Kill Jobs and Wages

We now have three months of data from the 50 states which show unequivocally that economic lockdowns did not save lives, they are associated with much HIGHER death rates.

The death rates in the strict lockdown states were about FOUR TIMES higher than in states that didn’t lockdown at all or had minimal restrictions. Amazingly, there is a linear relationship here between lockdowns and deaths, but in the opposite direction, that shutdown advocates would expect.

One could argue that the northeast had the most exposure to coronavirus in the first place (true), and that by locking down, they lowered death rates from going even higher (false).

Strict lockdowns failed because they were put into effect AFTER the infection had spread. New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Illinois and Michigan had catastrophically high death rates because their governors were almost criminally negligent in protecting seniors in nursing homes. If Andrew Cuomo, Phil Murphy and JB Pritzker had kept seniors and those with pre-existing conditions safe, they could have saved far more lives than shutting down barber shops, stores, schools, and office buildings.

By the way, liberal states with strict lockdown orders have by far the highest unemployment rates today. So the blue states succeeded in blowing up their economies AND still suffered the highest death rates. Congratulations.

SOURCE 

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COVID Panic Piece on Churches

The new COVID cases. It’s all the media can talk about—and it means nothing. Who cares about new cases? Is the death rate spiking? No. In fact, it’s low. Very low. Low enough that half of the country remains on their charted paths to reopening or they have reopened. And notice that it’s always the cases that are highlighted. Memo to the media, new cases don’t mean new deaths no matter how much you want it to be. You want another lockdown. You want more job losses. You want more economic despair. And you especially want more people to die. Sorry, but that’s not going to happen. For starters, the credibility behind the lockdowns met a quick death when y’all decided to just stop reporting on COVID for two-to-three weeks to give George Floyd rioters positive coverage. Don’t go outside, unless you’re going to protest…or riot, right?

The flip-flop from you and the equally shameless “medical experts” on this exposed this whole circus act. It’s not a big deal, is it? Because it certainly cannot be apocalyptic, which is what we’ve been told. Also, does this virus have a non-transmittable phase? If so, why did it only occur when the lefty mob was rioting? These “medical experts” are no better than the clowns we see on CNN bashing Trump. And when propaganda blows up, people simply do not care. It’s time to get back to living our lives, folks. Keep reopening and keep bringing those jobs back.

Speaking of propaganda, let’s take a look at this New York Times piece on places of worship. We cannot go back to church. It’s a bed of infection, right? Well, with the new cases, the NYT decided to create a panic, noting a spike in cases—the publication went after churches for spreading the virus:

Weeks after President Trump demanded that America’s shuttered houses of worship be allowed to reopen, new outbreaks of the coronavirus are surging through churches across the country where services have resumed.

The virus has infiltrated Sunday sermons, meetings of ministers and Christian youth camps in Colorado and Missouri. It has struck churches that reopened cautiously with face masks and social distancing in the pews, as well as some that defied lockdowns and refused to heed new limits on numbers of worshipers.

Pastors and their families have tested positive, as have church ushers, front-door greeters and hundreds of churchgoers. In Texas, about 50 people contracted the virus after a pastor told congregants they could once again hug one another. In Florida, a teenage girl died last month after attending a youth party at her church.

More than 650 coronavirus cases have been linked to nearly 40 churches and religious events across the United States since the beginning of the pandemic, with many of them erupting over the last month as Americans resumed their pre-pandemic activities, according to a New York Times database.

Yeah, so what? As some noted on Twitter, “that’s fewer than half the cases Florida alone has linked directly to travel from New York to Florida.”

Can you contract the virus in a church or place of worship? Sure. Is it a site for the supposed massive spread? No. It’s not. It’s yet another attempt by the Acela Media to scare you and to pivot away from the fact that New York is the mecca for COVID infections and deaths. It still is a total mess and their order to force nursing homes to accept COVID patients led to thousands of deaths. Forty-three percent of all COVID deaths in the U.S. come from nursing homes. Want to guess the party affiliation of the governors who said that had to happen? New York is the epicenter of the US-based outbreak, and it’s still a mess. It’s now dealing with the Big Apple suffering the fallout from the Floyd riots.

The media is doing all they can to keep us in fear. By their standard, no one should ever go outside again. That’s not going to happen. And we’re not going to stay inside until there’s a vaccine, of which I’m sure a good chunk of this nation wouldn’t even consider getting vaccinated due to the debate with that subject. Make it compulsory? Oh, well, talk about opening another can of worms.

SOURCE 

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IN BRIEF

Joe Biden and Sanders release leftist "unity platform" for Democrat Party (U.S. News & World Report)

If Biden follows platform compromises from task forces, he'll be "most progressive president since FDR," Sanders says (Breitbart)

Biden says he would restore pre-Hobby Lobby contraceptive mandate in wake of Little Sisters ruling (Fox News)

Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, key figure in the impeachment charade, announces his retirement in scathing statement (AP)

Trump meets Mexican president at White House despite Democratic objections; it's Trump and Lopez Obrador's first face-to-face meeting (Fox News)

Surge in virus hospitalizations strains hospitals in several states (The Washington Post)

CDC weighs early vaccine access for minorities and others at risk (The New York Times)

Atlanta mayor defies the governor, orders masks to be worn in public spaces (NPR)

Ivy League rules out playing all sports this fall due to pandemic (ESPN)

One-third of American families missed their July rent and housing payments and 10% fear they could lose their homes in the next six months (UK Daily Mail)

New Yorkers look to the suburbs and beyond. Other city dwellers may be next. (NPR)

New York City councilwoman freaks out over white man holding black child: "It hurts people" (The Federalist)

Andrew Jackson statue to be removed from City Hall in namesake Mississippi capital (The Daily Caller)

Seattle held segregated training session for white staff aimed at "undoing their whiteness" and told them "not to take undeserved promotions" to be better allies for racial justice (UK Daily Mail)

Communist China's leash on Hong Kong tightens, choking an accountability broadcaster (The New York Times)

Trump has 91% chance of winning reelection, political science professor calculates (Mediaite)

Policy: How we will ward off 21st-century adversaries (Senator Rick Scott)

Anti-Rule of Law protagonist Nancy Pelosi shrugs off mob destruction in Baltimore: "People will do what they do" (The Washington Free Beacon)

Joe Biden maneuvers to steal Trump's thunder with economic nationalism plan (NPR)

Congress wants to narrow future aid after big businesses raked in millions in the first round (Washington Examiner)

It may take weeks to know the presidential election winner (Washington Examiner)

MSNBC appoints radical leftist Joy Reid as Chris Matthews's replacement (Time)

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For more blog postings from me, see  TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL, GREENIE WATCH,  POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, and Paralipomena (Occasionally updated), A Coral reef compendium and an IQ compendium. (Both updated as news items come in).  GUN WATCH is now mainly put together by Dean Weingarten. I also put up occasional updates on my Personal blog and each day I gather together my most substantial current writings on THE PSYCHOLOGIST.

Email me  here (Hotmail address). My Home Pages are here (Academic) or  here  (Personal).  My annual picture page is here.  Home page supplement

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COVID-19:  Why are we not talking about Taiwan?

The international comparisons of Wuhan virus impact are fascinating.  Some things jump out at you. Canada and Australia are very similar in many ways but their virus story is very different.  Canada 95,269 cases; 7,717 deaths.  Australia 7,251 cases; 102 deaths.  Australia has a markedly conservative government and has had for some time.  Canada we all know about.

But with 443 cases and 7 deaths, Taiwan is the real standout. So why are we ignoring that?  Taiwan is politically contentious so that is clearly the reason but it does mean that information about it is sparse.

With a population of 24 million people (similar to Australia) it is not insignificant among nations.  I give below what Time magazine says about it:

Taiwan has managed a truly admirable response in less-than-ideal circumstances, despite being next door to China. Rather than shuttering its economy for weeks on end in an attempt to slow the virus, the self-governing island went another way—after quickly closing its borders and banning exports of surgical masks, the government used contact tracing and mobile SIM tracking to ensure those in quarantine were actually abiding by the rules. Taiwan has a single-payer health care system. Medical officials held briefings for the public daily, and businesses were kept open with aggressive precautionary measures like taking temperatures and providing sanitizer before patrons could enter. Taiwan’s response ranks among the world’s best.

With no lockdowns they had a LOW death rate.  That adds to an increasing body of evidence that lockdowns are a mistake that should have been abandoned long ago.  Other measures should have been used

SOURCE

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Sweden's coronavirus death rate is now falling FASTER than the UK's despite never having a lockdown

Sweden's coronavirus death rate is now falling faster than the UK's even though the country avoided having a lockdown.

Sweden registered 1.6 deaths per million people on Thursday which was higher overall than the 1.4 deaths registered in the UK. But the country's death rate has fallen by 2.51 deaths per million since June 9, when it was the highest in Europe at 4.12.

In the same time period the UK's death rate fell by just 1.88 deaths per million, with the figure largely stalling since mid-June as Britain attempts to exit a lockdown that has devastated the economy.

The only European countries which now have higher death rates than the UK and Sweden are Macedonia, at 3.4 deaths per million, and Kosovo, at 2.1, the European Center for Disease Control says.

By comparison Belgium, which for a time had the highest death rate anywhere in the world, registered just 0.27 deaths per million on Wednesday. Italy, where the pandemic first took hold in Europe, had 0.31.

Sweden's state epidemiologist Ander Tegnell has repeatedly argued against lockdowns, saying they 'fly in the face' of the science around epidemics and pointing to the UK's high death rate as evidence that they don't work. He has argued that the measures merely delay the inevitable and - over the long-term - all countries will end up in the same position.

Because of that, he argues that lockdowns are not worth the economic price-tag they carry. However, he has been forced to admit that Sweden's death toll is too high, and that harsher measures should have been taken to protect the vulnerable, particularly in care homes.

Sweden has so-far registered 73,858 cases of the virus and 5,482 deaths, far higher than its Nordic neighbours which did bring in lockdowns.

Norway has just 8,950 cases of the virus and 251 deaths after going into lockdown early, while Finland has 7,273 cases and 329 deaths. Denmark has 12,900 cases of the virus and 609 deaths.

The United States, which avoided full lockdowns of the kind seen in Europe, currently has a death rate similar to Sweden - at 1.76 per million on Wednesday.

South American countries which have found themselves at the epicentre of the pandemic currently have some of the highest death rates in the world. Brazil, where President Jair Bolsonaro has recently tested positive for the virus, has a current death rate of 4.8 per million people. Chile has one of the highest rates in the world at 5.58, narrowly followed by Peru with 5.52.

While deaths have also been increasing they have failed to keep pace with the number of cases, leading some to claim that the virus is getting weaker. Others tout improved treatments and hospital capacity

SOURCE

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The vast reach of insane Leftism

It was another night of mayhem in Washington, D.C. Left-wing nutjobs descended upon Lafayette Park in an effort to destroy the statue of Andrew Jackson. The Left-wing mob has scalped The New York Times and The Philadelphia Inquirer.

"Eskimo pie" is now problematic. Uncle Ben's Rice and Aunt Jemima pancake syrup are now undergoing rebranding. Even Gushers has decided to take preventative measures in order to avoid being turned into sashimi by these progressives. The Confederate flag has been banned at NASCAR. Some are calling for the Masters Tournament to be renamed.

In the beginning, this was about tearing down Confederate statues. It was never about that. It was about the Left's hatred of America. Oh, and they're tearing down those statues, along with Thomas Jefferson, Christopher Columbus, George Washington, Ulysses S. Grant, and now Theodore Roosevelt. This is a cultural revolution we're witnessing. These people are organized, violent, and devoted to burning America to the ground. They want to remake it, rewrite it, through a "woke" lens. It's an absurdity on a grand scale. This is what Tyler Durden would support and want if he were political and leaned way to the left.

"I am Jack's smirking revenge."

The desecration of statues, these leftists seizing portions of Seattle, and the general lawlessness that has plagued our cities is intolerable. And yet, it's all part of the far-Left's multifront war against us. I know I've said this, but these clowns that were made famous by us on various websites for their liberal antics have all graduated. They're now in publishing, media, the sciences, and now cooking.

Yes, Bon Appetit, the food publication that was engulfed in a brownface scandal recently that saw its editor-in-chief being jettisoned, will not be, get this, vetting recipes. No, I'm not kidding. You will get a political lecture with a side of penne. Is this real life? The Left has f**ked food, everyone. I mean, it's a tad funny, but also shows the reach the left mob has right now. Bon Appétit magazine, a publication that should be miles upon miles away from this political correctness nonsense, is now going to be ensuring food isn't racist anymore. Wait...what?! (via BA):

This newsletter has historically been Bon Appétit’s Letter from the Editor. Until we have a new editor in chief, the BA and Epicurious staff will use this platform to update you on the work we’re doing to address racism and biases at the brands, both internally and in our editorial coverage. This week, BA’s research director Joey Hernandez talks about how we’re auditing our existing recipes to add cultural context and address appropriation and tokenization.....

I grew up eating the Technicolor Filipino shaved ice dessert, a confection studded with sweetened beans, jellied fruits, flan, lychee, tapioca. It defined so much of my childhood of hazy California summers spent with my brothers sitting on our curb, scarfing down the haphazard assemblage with abandon. And here was one of my favorite treats in Bon Appétit, except with gummy bears, berries, and popcorn

It was jarring, to say the least. Was a Filipino person consulted on this? Did the writer do the first bit of research? Like many people who had seen a beloved recipe “riffed on” in a major publication, I had so many questions.

Halo-halo was hardly the only offender: BA’s recipes for Vietnamese pho, mumbo sauce, flaky bread, and white-guy kimchi all erased these recipes’ origins or, worse, lampooned them. Every time, promises to “do better” came quick and easy, but these mistakes are not one-offs. As San Francisco Chronicle restaurant critic Soleil Ho recently wrote, “The power of mainstream media is in what it normalizes. And in the case of today’s food media, what it normalizes is a white culture that sees everything foreign to it as a spectacle, something to be tamed and translated for an audience that can’t understand it.”

In all these cases and more, BA has been called out for appropriation, for decontextualizing recipes from non-white cultures, and for knighting ”experts” without considering if that person should, in fact, claim mastery of a cuisine that isn’t theirs.

In my role as research director, I’m working with the Test Kitchen editors of BA and Epicurious to address many of these problems of authorship, appropriation, the white gaze, and erasure. The events of recent weeks are indicative of larger problems, but correcting the record is a big part of our work of making BA a more inclusive publication.

To that end, our team will be auditing previously published recipes and articles that may not have been thoroughly fact-checked or read for cultural sensitivity when originally authored.

The Left will make you care. Whatever issue is out there, they will find a way to pervert it and turn it into another cultural battleground. Every time you eat something, remember, you might be aiding racism because the person who cooked it was a white person or something. Is it shocking? Probably not. When Portland went absolutely insane over two white women selling burritos, I guess the writing was on the wall.

This is our long war, folks. This will take generations to correct. It won't end if Donald Trump is re-elected. It won't end in elections after that. These are deeply entrenched bastions of liberal cultural power that must be destroyed. Hollywood, the news media, television, literature, the arts, academia, and now cooking publications are all infested with the stench of progressivism peddling illiberal agenda items. There is no discussion anymore. It's now "submit before Zod" or be destroyed. These are not people with differing views. These are intellectual terrorists who must be confronted. It's not going to be pretty, and I don't think the Right has the unity or the stomach to pull it off.

SOURCE 

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IN BRIEF

Despicable vandals cut down 9/11 Memorial flagpole in New York village (Fox News)

Tennessee's State Capitol Commission approves moving Nathan Bedford Forrest bust to Tennessee State Museum (Tennessean)

DC Council votes to end police involvement in public-school security (The Washington Free Beacon)

DC mayor: Police budget cuts make the district "less safe" (CNS News)

The Internet is changing drastically and dreadfully for Hong Kong's citizens (MIT Technology Review)

Australia ends Hong Kong extradition treaty, extends visas (AP)

Tropical Storm Fay bears down on mid-Atlantic, New England (Fox News)

Concealed carrier stops man who was strangling a woman in a Tennessee restaurant parking lot (The Truth About Guns)

Joe Biden supports two regulations that would destroy entire industries (Foundation for Economic Education)

Thousands of North Carolina voters double-voted, watchdog group finds (The Daily Signal)

After Trump took office, judicial-nominee obstruction skyrocketed from 3% to 75% (The Federalist)

Policy: After the U.S. leaves the WHO, should the UN be next? (Issues & Insights)

Despite the recent coronavirus surge in southern states, three states — New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts — account for about 42 percent of COVID-19 deaths in America. Why?

Jobless claims at better-than-expected 1.3 million, total getting benefits falls to 18 million (CNBC)

Pandemic accelerates the death of malls (Washington Examiner)

Big Ten moving to conference-only model for all sports this fall (ESPN)

Madison Avenue business sues Governor Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio for riots, estimates $100 million in damages (PJ Media)

NYC Black Lives Matter marches can continue despite large-event ban, Bill de Blasio says (Fox News)

"Who the hell wants to stay on this job?" NYPD retirement filings surge by 400%, forcing department to limit applications

Plasma therapy successes stoke high hopes (Washington Examiner)

Wearing a mask cuts own risk of novel coronavirus by 65%, research shows (Fox News)

U.S. Treasury sanctions Chinese entities, officials using Magnitsky Human Rights Act (The National Pulse)

China vows to retaliate against U.S. sanctions (CNBC)

Army investigates handout suggesting Trump campaign slogan constitutes "covert white supremacy" (Military Times)

Arrests along Mexico border jumped 40% last month (The Washington Post)

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For more blog postings from me, see  TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL, GREENIE WATCH,  POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, and Paralipomena (Occasionally updated), A Coral reef compendium and an IQ compendium. (Both updated as news items come in).  GUN WATCH is now mainly put together by Dean Weingarten. I also put up occasional updates on my Personal blog and each day I gather together my most substantial current writings on THE PSYCHOLOGIST.

Email me  here (Hotmail address). My Home Pages are here (Academic) or  here  (Personal).  My annual picture page is here.  Home page supplement

**************************

It’s not Trump but America the left hates

Donald Trump’s speech at Mount Rushmore on the eve of the Fourth of July was the most important and riveting of his presidency. It was mostly a soaring celebration of America, though with a presidential election just five months away, there were a few partisan jabs at his opponents.

By the standards of contemporary debate it was civil throughout. By Trump’s own normal standards it was positively decorous.

Reaction to it was all but deranged and demonstrates the profound cultural crisis through which the West is passing.

A piece in Foreign Policy, a semi-official journal of liberal internationalism, in all seriousness described the speech as fascist. Fascist!

This bizarre reaction was sadly pretty widespread.

Time magazine said “Trump pushes racial division”. Annie Karni in The New York Times was typical, indeed relatively mild, of much of NYT reaction saying that Trump had delivered a “dark and divisive speech”. Esquire magazine called it “terrifyingly bonkers”. An Associated Press headline said the speech was all about advancing racial division.

Perhaps the most magnificent bit of nonsense of all came in the increasingly deranged Washington Post. It ran a piece saying the speech demonstrated Trump’s “unyielding push to preserve Confederate symbols and the legacy of white dominion”.

That piece deserves a special Leon Trotsky award for ideological madness because Trump didn’t mention, extol or support any Confederate figure at all. Instead he sang paeans of praise to Abraham Lincoln for abolishing the evil of slavery and constantly affirmed America’s civic universalism.

It goes without saying Trump brings some of the misinterpretation on himself. He has said so many intemperate, foolish, offensive and just plain wrong things that it’s what people have come to expect. At the personal level, Trump is an appalling figure to embody the defence of Western civilisation.

The Room Where It Happened, by Trump’s former National Security Adviser, John Bolton, is a brilliant read, but sobering and even disturbing in its depiction of Trump. Bolton is a lifelong hardline right-wing Republican, a natural America First type but from inside the system. You can discount part of his tone as self serving, though Bolton seems pretty self aware. But you cannot really argue he makes up the incidents where Trump is abusive and foul, or where he simply has no idea what he’s talking about (constantly confusing the president of Afghanistan with his predecessor, thinking Finland is a part of Russia, not knowing Britain is a nuclear power). Most presidencies look ragged from the inside, but this is pretty weird.

However, as well as many foolish things, Trump has said and done brave and even wise things. It is also the case that there is no serious evidence that Trump is a racist. Nonetheless, even if you believe the very worst of Trump, a sensible reaction to the Mount Rushmore speech might have been to argue that while Trump expressed noble and traditional American sentiments in this speech, he frequently doesn’t live up to those sentiments, that he was a hypocrite.

But I suspect we are dealing with something much more troubling than merely the normal Trump Derangement Syndrome. Many of the speech’s critics hate it partly because it expresses traditional American liberalism on issues of race and history. It is the turn away from that liberalism, towards a wholly destructive hatred of the Western project and of all Western history, combined with a profoundly illiberal desire to re-racialise society, that is disturbing in the reaction to Trump’s speech.

The Economist magazine addresses this a bit in this week’s issue. It is important for a moment to situate the Economist culturally and ideologically. The Economist was once an intelligently conservative magazine. It would be wrong to characterise it that way now. It is a strong proponent of markets, and mixed-economy capitalism, and of free trade, but on all social issues it has moved to the progressive side. Nothing wrong with that. Magazines, like people, are entitled to change their minds, change their outlooks. They go through different stages, adopt different identities.

But now on social issues The Economist is a journalistic expression of corporate wokeness. Partly one suspects to emphasise the devoutness of its adherence to the new religions, The Economist is seldom outdone in its detestation of Trump and all his works.

Yet this week, remarkably, The Economist finally finds in itself the wit to denounce the left-wing extremism of aspects of the Black Lives Matter movement and its recent efflorescence in protests. After running through its normal liturgical denunciation of Trump, The Economist actually made an interesting point. The cancel culture and extremists in the racial justice and social justice movements are actually attacking liberalism.

It said: “... a dangerous rival approach has emerged from America’s universities. It rejects the liberal notion of progress. It defines everyone by their race, and every action as racist or anti-racist... it is spreading out of the academy and into everyday life. If it supplants liberal values, then intimidation will chill open debate and sow division to the disadvantage of all, black and white.”

That looks like The Economist has been mugged by reality. It’s the first recognition for a long time in that august journal that the threat to liberalism comes from the activist left, the race-centred, history-hating, which nonsensically sees West as the enemy of humanity.

It is just this illiberal spirit that The Economist derides which I suspect animates so much of the denunciation of the Mount Rushmore speech. That is, the Trump haters have not assumed that Trump said something worse than he did and reacted against this. They actually heard what Trump said but have moved to a position where they now denounce the great liberal ideal of abolishing race as a constraint in civic identity, and building on the strengths of our liberal and conservative heritage, while of course always recognising the many times Western societies have failed to live up to their ideals.

I recommend people read Trump’s speech. Mount Rushmore is the site of carved likenesses of four great presidents: George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt. Each of these men had their faults of course, they were, after all, human beings. And each was a creature of their time, no-one can really escape that either. But on any rational assessment each was a friend and enlarger of liberty and each contributed magnificently to the American dream and the American achievement.

Trump partly uses the four men as the frame for his speech, which was certainly crafted by expert speech writers. Consider some of its key passages. Repeatedly, in this speech Trump denounces the evil of slavery and its contradiction of American ideals. He says of Lincoln: “He rose to high office from obscurity, based on a force and clarity of his anti-slavery convictions... Lincoln won the Civil War; he issued the Emancipation Proclamation, he led the passage of the 13th Amendment, abolishing slavery for all time, and ultimately, his determination to preserve our nation and our union cost him his life...giving every ounce of strength that he had to ensure that government of the people, by the people, and for the people, did not perish from the Earth.” Trump cites and praises many African-American heroes.

Frequently, repeatedly, joyfully, Trump cites and celebrates the universalism of the American promise, that the American dream is open to every citizen of every background. He says: “We believe in equal opportunity, equal justice and equal treatment for citizens of every race, background, religion and creed. Every child of every colour – born and unborn – is made in the holy image of God.”

That is not fascism, but traditional liberalism, in this case, if you like, Christian liberalism.

Trump cites Martin Luther King, whose vision he supports.

King did not denounce the American dream. He did not denounce America’s core documents. Rather, in his famous I Have a Dream speech, he asked America to live up to those documents fully. Indeed he began that speech with a heartfelt tribute to Lincoln: “... a great American in whose symbolic shadow we stand, (who) signed the Emancipation Declaration. This momentous decree is a great beacon of hope...”

In a powerful formulation, King said he and his followers had come to Washington “to cash a check. When the architects of our Republic wrote the magnificent words of the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence, they were signing a promissory note to which every American was to fall heir.”

It’s pretty clear isn’t it that if King were saying things like that today he would be denounced as a racist, a stooge for colonialism, as someone who refused to acknowledge the structural racism of America and its institutions, as someone who did not understand that, as The New York Times ridiculous 1619 Project has it, the central purpose of America was slavery. King would surely be denounced as threatening the safety of students who might have to listen to such shocking sentiments and he would be subject to the cancel culture.

King was also, like Trump, strongly, vigorously, stridently opposed to violence in demonstrations.

In his famous speech, King instructed: “In the process of gaining our rightful place we must not be guilty of wrongful deeds. Let us not seek to satisfy our thirst for justice by drinking from the cup of bitterness and hatred. We must not allow our creative protests to degenerate into physical violence.”

None of this, of course, is remotely to equate the heroic moral leadership of Martin Luther King, which has inspired millions of people across the generations, including me, with the often odious personality of Trump. However, those who style themselves as King’s heirs have become too often progenitors of ideological extremism he would hate.

In attacking Trump for his Mount Rushmore speech they are not just displaying an irrational hatred of a particular political leader, they are actually attacking Trump for espousing the same positions as King himself espoused.

Of course there were some contemporary, partisan, sharp edges to the Trump speech, but nothing remotely racist, or even race specific, nothing remotely offensive.

In his speech, Trump promises that the nation’s monuments to its founders will be protected. He promises that the police will “arrest the rioters”. He does not say protesters should be arrested. This is a vital distinction and one which Trump’s enemies never acknowledge. Barack Obama himself called violent protesters “thugs” and said they discredited the movements they claimed to support.

Republican senator Tom Cotton caused a firestorm by writing an oped in The New York Times in which he argued that violent protesters whom city police forces could not control justified the deployment of active service US military. That was probably a mistaken call at the time, though by no means extreme. But the real moral of the story is that when the newspaper staff revolted and the paper’s leadership went into craven surrender, and then full jihad denunciation of Cotton, they routinely claimed he had called for troops to be used against demonstrators.

These constant elidings and misrepresentations cannot really be seen any longer as accidental. The crime the ultra woke militants of illiberal liberal conformity want to punish is actually failing to support the new civic religion which involves hatred of Western civilisation and hatred of the societies this civilisation has created.

Trump at Mount Rushmore also had some shorter passages condemning the contemporary cancel culture and the left-wing indoctrination of students with hostility to America. In the attacks which claimed Trump was a fascist they claimed Trump was making this up, that no such thing really existed.

Are they kidding?

The West is under profound challenge internally and externally today. The irrational hatred of the West, within the West, is one symptom of a deep malaise. Trump was right to call it out.

SOURCE 

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Century-old BCG vaccine used to eradicate tuberculosis DOES 'reduce the chance of death from Covid-19', study confirms

The BCG vaccine given to every British teenager between 1953 and 2005 to protect against tuberculosis could offer protection against Covid-19, a new study has found. 

Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) was first mass produced in 1924, and widespread vaccination for secondary school children was only halted in the UK when TB was effectively eradicated.

Academics in the US compared the BCG jab's popularity in several countries with each nation's coronavirus outbreak — including both infections and deaths — and found a clear link between the vaccine and a lower mortality rate from Covid-19.

When differences in social, economic, and demographics were taken into account, scientists found that where there was a 10 per cent greater prevalence of the BCG vaccine there was also a 10.4 per cent reduction in COVID-19 mortality.

This suggests that in the UK, adults aged between 30 and 80 who were given the jab at school may have a greater level of protection. 

Children in the UK were required to have the injection by the age of 14, making the last cohort to receive the immune-boosting jab around 29 to 30 now.

BCG is still widely used in some countries around the world where there is a higher risk of TB, but in the UK only at-risk individuals, such as babies living with infected relatives and children in some BAME groups, receive the jab.

Professor Keith Neal, Emeritus Professor of the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases at the University of Nottingham who was not involved in the research, said: 'Within the UK, most people over 30 and under 80 will have had BCG in the schools programme.

'Many children in the BAME groups will have continued to be vaccinated at birth, although people born outside the UK may not have been vaccinated. 'There are also many different BCGs around the world.'

The latest study, from academics at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University and the National Institutes of Health, has been peer-reviewed and published in the journal PNAS.

The BCG vaccine was invented a century ago and gives immunity to tuberculosis (TB) — a bacterial infection — but it is known to have other benefits. 

Previous trials discovered people who receive the jab, which costs as little as £30, have improved immune systems and are able to protect themselves from infection.

For example, in a trial among Native Americans, BCG vaccination in childhood was able to offer protection against TB up to 60 years after vaccination.

These so-called off-target effects include enhanced protection against respiratory diseases, and have been recognised by the World Health Organization (WHO).

SOURCE 

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For more blog postings from me, see  TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL, GREENIE WATCH,  POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, and Paralipomena (Occasionally updated), A Coral reef compendium and an IQ compendium. (Both updated as news items come in).  GUN WATCH is now mainly put together by Dean Weingarten. I also put up occasional updates on my Personal blog and each day I gather together my most substantial current writings on THE PSYCHOLOGIST.

Email me  here (Hotmail address). My Home Pages are here (Academic) or  here  (Personal).  My annual picture page is here.  Home page supplement

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The retreat of Covid-19

Provided we learn the lessons of the first wave we will have little to fear as we reopen our economy

Matt Ridley

It is now three weeks since thousands of protesters first gathered in Trafalgar Square, and two weeks since London filled with even larger crowds, few of whom wore masks or kept two metres apart, and some of whom got involved in fights, resulting in arrests and injuries: a perfect recipe for spreading the coronavirus. Yet there has been a continuing decline in new cases of the disease and no uptick in calls to 111 or 999 about suspected Covid-19. By now, some effect should have shown up if it was going to. In June, London has seen fewer deaths from all causes than in a normal year. Why is this?

While respiratory viruses nearly always evolve towards lower virulence, essentially because the least sick people go to the most meetings and parties, this one was never very dangerous for most people in the first place. Its ability to kill 80-year-olds in care homes stands in sharp contrast with its inability to kill younger people. Fewer than 40 people under the age of 40 with no underlying conditions have died in Britain. On board the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, 1,100 sailors tested positive, many had no symptoms and only one died.

The summer weather is helping. Viruses are not easily caught outside, where ventilation, high temperatures and strong sunlight kill the virus. In addition, sunlight boosts vitamin D, which is protective against respiratory viruses; average vitamin D levels are especially low in Britons in winter because our public-health service does less than, for example, Germany’s to redress this deficiency.

The assumption expressed in the very term R0 was that everybody would initially be susceptible to catching this virus. But it soon became clear that this could not be the case. Frequent cases of family members not passing it on to each other baffled scientists. It turns out that there is lots of pre-existing immunity to the virus. Some seems to be generic protection conferred by so called innate immunity.

There is growing evidence that live attenuated vaccines such as polio and BCG have protective effects against other viruses by stimulating the production of interferons. More specific T-cell immunity resulting from previous infection with other common-cold coronaviruses is also widespread. Around 70 per cent of children under four show evidence of resistance to such coronaviruses.

This was a big part of the explanation for the vast over-estimates of death rates based on mathematical models. The virus was spreading like wildfire in hospitals and care homes where elderly people were far less resistant than the population at large. The modellers assumed these cases were coming into hospitals from the community when actually many were already in the care system. This wildly distorted their estimates. Outside such settings and large indoor gatherings, as the commentator Hugh Osmond has put it, the tinder was damp.

The influential Imperial College modellers have recently published a justification claiming that compulsory lockdowns are mainly responsible for the death rates being so much lower than they forecast, with other measures including school closure, public event bans, social distancing and self isolation only contributing 5 per cent of the infections averted.

However, they assumed, unrealistically, that all the reduction in coronavirus transmission was due to interventions. In reality people would have changed their behaviour anyway, and variability in people’s susceptibility to infection and number of contacts with others would have slowed its spread, as the pool of uninfected people most likely to become infected diminished.

Moreover, an expert scourge of dubious models, Nic Lewis, has shown that with arguably more realistic assumptions about the time between infection and death and how quickly interventions worked, their own model implies lockdowns did not make the largest contribution towards ending this wave of the pandemic. That is consistent with lockdown-free Sweden having also experienced a big reduction in transmission. Japan has one of the softest lockdowns and lowest death tolls.

Will there be another wave in the autumn? Most medics think so. But if we learn the lessons of the first wave – mainly that shielding the old and vulnerable is key – and we manage at least some effective contact tracing, then the winter wave should be more like a series of small, local outbreaks. A second national lockdown would be a huge mistake, given the harm the first one has done to everything from cancer diagnosis to mental health, let alone employment.

SOURCE 

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Is Donald Trump a Fascist and a Dictator?

If you listen to the liberal media, it’s Berlin 1933 all over again, or perhaps Moscow 1937, or maybe Madrid 1939. The liberals are literally wetting their pants, with hysterical cries that American democracy is under the imminent threat of a fascist dictatorship. And of course, that fascist dictator would be none other than President Donald Trump.

Reacting to Trump’s speech about mobilizing the military to protect our cities from lawless rioting and looting, California Senator Kamala Harris had this to say: “These are not the words of a president. They are the words of a dictator.”

And Oregon Senator Ron Wyden is heading to the barricades to protect American democracy from mean ole’ Fascists: “The fascist speech Donald Trump just delivered verged on a declaration of war against American citizens. I fear for our country tonight and will not stop defending America against Trump’s assault.”

So, this is it, The End Of America’s Democratic Experiment, the moment the lights went out in the City Upon a Hill.

Well, let me assure you that American democracy is alive and well. And understanding this essential fact is easier if you look at some real, actual dictatorships. (And note, modern dictatorships are liberal playgrounds compared to the dictatorships of the first half of the 20th century, such as Nazi Germany, a subject I will address next week).

I like to think I have some idea of what dictatorship actually looks like as I have spent quite a bit of time in countries that are ruled by undeniably dictatorial regimes, such as Uzbekistan, Belarus, Turkmenistan, Syria, Burma, and China. I’ve also spent time in countries that are run by authoritarian quasi-dictatorships like Russia, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela. In fact, I spent four years working in Russian state media and saw from the inside how such a regime operates. 

Uzbekistan is one of my favorite countries in the world. Samarkand and Bukhara were once important outposts on the famed Silk Road from Europe to China, and their architectural heritage is nothing short of stunning. Uzbek cuisine is equally stunningly delicious. And Uzbeks themselves are some of the friendliest and most hospitable people you’ll ever meet.

After the break-up of the Evil Empire, Uzbekistan gained independence. But its people have been anything but free. Former Communist Party boss Islam Karimov won the first ever presidential election in 1991, and was re-elected in 2000, 2007 and 2015 in blatantly rigged elections, each time with more than 90% of the purported vote. All real opposition parties have been outlawed, their leaders in prison, in exile, or dead. Until his death in 2015, Karimov ruled Uzbekistan for more than 23 years as an absolute tyrant.

A United Nations report described torture by the authorities as “institutionalized, systematic, and rampant.” The police and security services routinely kidnapped and murdered opposition figures; rape of prisoners was common. It is widely rumored that some prisoners were boiled to death. In 2005, there were widespread protests in the city of Andijan. Police closed all exits from Bobur Square in the city center and deliberately drove the protesters into a trap. An estimated 800 people were killed by snipers and machine-gun fire. When I was there in 2007, I knew it was a dangerous topic to discuss. But when I simply asked people, 'Excuse me, how do it get to Bobur Square?' I could see raw fear in their eyes.

There is no free media. In fact, when I was there, I could find only one newspaper distributed in the whole country, four pages daily, and mostly devoted to stories extravagantly praising Karimov, one I remember was headlined “President Karimov Receives Phone Call From Ambassador of Qatar.” There are several TV channels, all under government control, and all were dedicated to proclaiming Karimov the best president ever in world history. The internet is strictly regulated, and all websites critical of the regime are blocked. Even private conversations may be monitored for any signs of dissent. 

Belarus is much less interesting, except that its capital Minsk is the most perfect example of a city built almost entirely in the Stalinist style of architecture.  Alexander Lukashenko was elected president in that country’s first and only free elections in 1994. Since then he has been re-elected in 2001, 2006, 2010, and 2015, always with 80% to 84% of the vote.

I was in Minsk on the eve of the 2010 election. Protests were expected against his one-man rule, mostly peaceful. As I walked around the city’s “Independence Square” around dusk, I noticed dozens of buses carrying the fearsome and widely feared OMON (Special Purpose Mobile Police).  These riot police are Lukashenko’s Praetorian Guard, loyal only to him and completely beyond any civilian control. And these guys were clearly amped up, already fidgeting with their riot shields and heavy batons, obviously eager to get out and start bashing heads in. Knowing what they were capable of, and not feeling especially heroic, I decided to wait out the rest of the night in the relative safety of my hotel room.

The next day the Central Election Commission dutifully proclaimed Lukashenko the winner with the predictable 80% of the vote (most post-Soviet leaders are elected with around 80%, to seem like an overwhelming victory, but not so overwhelming as to be farcical). The OMON had arrested hundreds of protestors the night before, many severely beaten. Seven of the main opposition leaders were arrested by the KGB (yes, they still call it that) the day after the election, and an eighth was found dead, officially deemed a “suicide.”

So, what does a real dictatorship look like? Presidents-for-life, elected over and over again in sham elections. Opposition parties outlawed, and dissidents harassed, imprisoned, tortured, and murdered, or merely exiled if they’re lucky. All media under state control, and all access to opposition views blocked. Ordinary citizens cowed into submission by police and security services who stand above and beyond any laws. Plus, rubber-stamp legislatures who allow the dictator to rule by personal fiat, and judicial systems unable and unwilling to defy their employers, who are not the people but their rulers.

Now, as far as I know, Senators Harris and Wyden, as well as former Vice President Biden and the Clintons are not rotting in jail cells in secret prisons. Stephen Colbert, Chris Hayes, and Don Lemon are still on the air. Democrats still get elected to office, and Congress does not do Trump’s bidding merely at his command. The New York Times and Washington Post’s websites were still functioning last time I checked this morning, and neither paper was devoted to lavishly praising President Trump.

In short, Donald Trump is not a dictator, or a fascist. But liberals are desperate to tar him with these brazenly false labels. “Dictator” and “fascist” are boogie-man words designed to scare people into believing that Trump is a threat to their liberty and freedom, and the only way to save American democracy is to vote for Democrats. It’s downright shameful, and it shows their pathetic ignorance of basic reality. We need to fight their lies with the truth. 

SOURCE 

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Majority of New Yorkers oppose cutting funding to police

“A strong majority of New Yorkers oppose defunding the police, despite calls from activists to gut the NYPD’s vast $6 billion budget in the wake of protests over George Floyd’s death that triggered a wave of police reforms, a new statewide poll shows. Sixty percent of voters rejected compared to 30 percent who supported a radical entrenchment [sic], according to results from a Siena College poll released Tuesday. Even in New York City, more voters said they opposed defunding the police — 47 percent — than the 41 percent of respondents who said they supported shrinking the police department.”

More HERE 

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These Aren’t Protests, They’re Religious Ceremonies

“At a park in New York City, I witnessed something odd. A group of women silently formed a circle in the middle of a large lawn. Their all-black outfits contrasted with the surrounding summer pastels, and they ignored the adjacent sun bathers as they began to kneel and slowly chant. They repeated a three word matin. The most striking feature of this scene was its familiarity. Any half-decent anthropologist would label this a religious ritual. Yet, few are willing to explicitly describe these events as part of a religion. The women may have been kneeling in a circle while chanting, but they repeated the words ‘black lives matter.’ Politics obscures the obvious. Wokeness is a religion, and conservatives must act as if large parts of our institutions are run by this cult.”

More HERE 

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For more blog postings from me, see  TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL, GREENIE WATCH,  POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, and Paralipomena (Occasionally updated), A Coral reef compendium and an IQ compendium. (Both updated as news items come in).  GUN WATCH is now mainly put together by Dean Weingarten. I also put up occasional updates on my Personal blog and each day I gather together my most substantial current writings on THE PSYCHOLOGIST.

Email me  here (Hotmail address). My Home Pages are here (Academic) or  here  (Personal).  My annual picture page is here.  Home page supplement

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The long-term effects of Covid-19

By economic historian Martin Hutchinson

Four months after the Chinese-origin coronavirus impinged in a big way on our lives, it is finally becoming clear that it is not going away, and that the world will have to take account of it and its future cousins for many years to come. Accordingly, the world economy and life in general will suffer some major changes. The future will be very different from what we had imagined, obviously for the worse but in just a few respects for the better. The quicker we adapt, the better.

We have learned a considerable amount about Covid-19, which makes it easier than when it burst on the scene four months ago to analyze its implications. It is extremely infectious, and not very seasonal; thus, it is not going away in summer, but conversely should not become hugely worse next winter. It has a relatively low mortality rate, about 0.4-0.5%, but that mortality is heavily concentrated among those over 70, especially if they have diabetes or are overweight. It is beginning to appear possible that the immunity that we had hoped for against repeat infections may not be very powerful, perhaps lasting only a few months in many cases.

It is also clear that, although we may have a vaccine against Covid-19 by the end of the year, or shortly thereafter, that vaccine may not be very effective, perhaps only reducing the risk of infection by 50% or so, especially for the vulnerable old/fat/diabetic group. If that were the case, the vaccine would be essentially useless for that group, although it could sharply reduce the number of infections among the young and healthy, and thereby limit the disease’s spread.

Finally, as a geopolitical matter, China has persistently lied about the virus and its effects. First it denied its existence, then it claimed it rarely moved between humans, then it claimed an entirely spurious success in quelling it in mid-February, thus deceiving the health authorities worldwide into thinking the virus could be contained in the West. Even now, China is claiming 90 million tests for Covid-19 and only 83,000 cases, an infection rate of 0.09% of those tested, less than 5% of any Western jurisdiction, and less than 10% of the infection rate in Japan and South Korea, otherwise the lowest locations worldwide where statistics are extensive and reliable. That is well beyond the bounds of the statistically plausible; hence the Chinese authorities are lying.

The World Health Organization has acted as the accessory to China’s lies and possibly crimes; it should be closed down as should most other international organizations, for reasons I have discussed previously.

Finally, as well as repeated outbreaks of Covid-19, we may very well be subjected to various outbreaks of coronavirus “cousins” of that disease. We can hope those cousins will have only moderate mortality rates (it is difficult for a disease with high mortality rates to spread worldwide in modern conditions – thus our success against the Ebola virus in 2014.) However, we have clearly been very lucky in past decades in not suffering repeated such epidemics. We should not expect to be so lucky going forward, even if we can tentatively hope that modern advances in genetic engineering are not being used by state or private bad actors to create new such diseases. One way or another, we seem likely to live in a disease-ridden world; this has important economic implications.

To begin with a cheerful implication: the U.S. Social Security Trust Fund may not go bankrupt, and occupational pension schemes may be better funded than we believe. As far as fatalities are concerned, Covid-19 affects primarily those over 70, not those of working age. Hence if the disease and its cousins are around long-term, the actuarial assumptions under which Social Security is calculated are too unfavorable. While almost all working-age people will continue to exist, paying contributions into the system, the number of beneficiaries will be sharply reduced. Essentially the increase in life expectancies, that has caused the social security system to be unstable in the long-term, will go into reverse.

The effect may not be enough to avert a bankruptcy that is projected for the mid-2030s, but it should at least postpone it, and make the corrective actions (cutting benefits and raising contributions) needed when that bankruptcy arrives less severe. Currently, the present value of Social Security’s future revenues at the beginning of 2020 was $69 trillion, that of its future liabilities $84 trillion, for an actuarial deficit of $15 trillion. Covid-19 can at its present mortality be expected to remove about 5% from the liabilities and nothing from the assets, reducing the actuarial deficit to $11 trillion and pushing the default date out to 2040. That is not everything, but it is at least something!

That benefit does however depend on the authorities not being so foolish as to shut the economy down again (which reduces revenues) and not paying out any more large random amounts to those currently affected economically. Unfortunately, both of those assumptions may be too optimistic.

The shorter and more uncertain lifespans produced by Covid-19 and its cousins will also have major social effects. Since retirement can no longer be projected as a guaranteed 25-30 year vacation, fewer people will retire. Instead they will carry on working for as long as they are fit, thus removing the need to scrimp and save in their 50s and 60s. There will also be political effects. Since the young will no longer assume they are going to live to 120 or even 150, the salience of global warming will undergo a sharp decline (also the human brain is incapable of dealing with two life-threatening crises simultaneously and for most people, Covid-19 will be more life-threatening and immediate).

Since Social Security bankruptcy will no longer appear inevitable, there will be a greater willingness to make the sacrifices necessary to save it – raising interest rates and eliminating crazy budget deficits. Those higher interest rates, in turn will both improve the solvency of Social Security and restore productivity growth to its historic level, as the economic distortions of ultra-low interest rates will disappear. Naturally, higher interest rates and lower life expectancies will cause a mighty stock market crash and asset liquidation, but in the long run this will do only good. The next few years, with massive bankruptcies of obsolete services, urban real estate and asset prices in general will however be truly painful.

A further social change caused by Covid-19 will be to remove anti-natalism in the West. With lifespans shorter and more uncertain, productivity growth improved and the long-term “threat” of global warming less salient, people will once again want more children. This will not affect long-term global population trends much – getting fertility down in the world’s poor countries is necessary for that, and Covid-19 will affect those countries least, since they have relatively few old folk. It will however greatly improve the social health of Western societies and eliminate the desire by politicians in “demographic decline” countries like Japan and Italy to import more Third World immigrants for spurious demographic reasons.

Covid-19 and its cousins will also affect the world’s consumption habits. Cruises, crowded and filled with older people, will almost disappear. “Fine dining” restaurants, which also appeal to the older crowd, will also suffer, except those in spacious acreage outside the big cities, who can provide their diners with a Covid-free alfresco experience. Opera and serious theater will be badly affected, though probably not fatally. Cities in general will lose population, as I have already written, but growth will come in distant suburbs, with people adapting to working say 2 days per week at the office and 3 at home.

Dwellers in the outer suburbs will not take public transportation to commute on their working days, but will use Uber/Lyft, or more likely those services’ much cheaper self-driving replacements. Indeed, Covid-19 is likely to be very good for the embryonic self-driving automobile business; with the world spacing out, distances driven will increase, and there will be a strong desire to work, read or socialize while travelling, rather than concentrating on the road for hours. Self-driving cars will be cheaper on a day-to-day basis than Uber while allowing their owners both privacy and freedom from road rage.

On the other hand, crowded facilities that appeal to the young will suffer less. People who are prepared to riot and thereby risk Covid-19 will also go to bars and clubs. The number of urban singles will however decline since most people, however, not being anti-natalist, will marry early and have families. They will then patronize chain restaurants and fast food, ideally those with alfresco facilities. They will also home school to a much greater extent than at present, since schools and colleges will be correctly seen as vectors of disease both physical and mental, with their leftist indoctrination.

Overall, the pleasant changes that Covid-19 may bring in the long term, while substantial and gratifying, may seem less certain than the unpleasant ones. Humanity has however shown time and again an infinite ability to adapt, provided that politicians don’t get in the way.

SOURCE 

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An outbreak of common sense in Britain

Passengers arriving at Heathrow airport from “red list” countries like the US will be able to pay for Covid-19 tests to beat quarantine, under a pilot scheme expected to be backed by the Department for Transport.

Grant Shapps, the Transport Secretary, has signalled his support for Covid-19 testing as a way to revive flying after it was decimated by the pandemic and is seeking to agree international standards that could allow quarantine-free air travel.

The Daily Telegraph has established that 21 countries including Austria, Iceland, Jersey, Madeira, Thailand, Singapore, Barbados, Jamaica and Japan have already introduced airport tests that can allow some passengers to avoid quarantine if they are negative for Covid-19....

SOURCE 

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IN BRIEF

Supreme Court unanimously rules states can sanction or remove "faithless" presidential electors, hampering the Democrats' efforts to undermine the Electoral College (Fox News)

Mitch McConnell opens door to direct payments in next coronavirus bill (The Hill)

George Soros set to double 2016 spending, pouring $40 million into super PAC (The Washington Free Beacon)

Unhinged: Anti-Trump Republicans endorse an increasingly leftist Joe Biden (Issues & Insights)

Three-quarters of people who live with a coronavirus sufferer may develop "silent" immunity without needing antibodies (UK Daily Mail)

Immunity can be "short-lived," expert warns (Fox News)

Herd immunity may not be achievable in fight against coronavirus (Fox News)

EPA approves use of Lysol surface disinfectant products against COVID-19 (Fox News)

Protests and riots may have spread coronavirus, some cities admit (National Review)

Is the pandemic coming to an end at last? (Issues & Insights)

Judicial activism: Dakota Access pipeline must shut down by August 5, court rules, adding pressure to an already fragile industry (New York Post)

Harvard — with its $41 billion endowment — goes online, but $50K tuition cost is unchanged (Fox Business)

U.S. travel ban is costing Europe billions (Forbes)

States mandate masks and begin to shut down again — to the Left's glee (The Washington Post)

Georgia governor authorizes National Guard troops after eight-year-old killed (AP)

New bill would require New York cops to have personal insurance for liability suits (New York Post)

Massachusetts expands mail-in voting to all voters in state (Washington Examiner)

Florida orders public schools to reopen in August (Miami Herald)

"Cancel Hamilton" trends as social-justice warriors demand Disney pull musical that "glorifies slave trader" (The Daily Wire)

Country music legend and American patriot Charlie Daniels dies at 83 (Fox News)

DHS rule change will allow ICE to remove foreign students taking online course load in the fall (The Daily Caller)

Corrupt UN slams Donald Trump for killing Iranian General Soleimani because there was "insufficient evidence he was behind an ongoing or imminent attack" (UK Daily Mail)

Communist China detains Xu Zhangrun, leading critic of President Xi Jinping (The Washington Post)

Policy: Supreme Court's "faithless electors" decision safeguards Electoral College (The Daily Signal)

Policy: Protecting undersea cables must be made a national-security priority (Hudson Institute)

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For more blog postings from me, see  TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL, GREENIE WATCH,  POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, and Paralipomena (Occasionally updated), A Coral reef compendium and an IQ compendium. (Both updated as news items come in).  GUN WATCH is now mainly put together by Dean Weingarten. I also put up occasional updates on my Personal blog and each day I gather together my most substantial current writings on THE PSYCHOLOGIST.

Email me  here (Hotmail address). My Home Pages are here (Academic) or  here  (Personal).  My annual picture page is here.  Home page supplement

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Coronavirus: Why everyone was wrong

The immune response to the virus is stronger than everyone thought

The original article below was published in the Swiss magazine Weltwoche (World Week) on June 10th. The author, Beda M Stadler is the former director of the Institute for Immunology at the University of Bern, a biologist and professor emeritus.  He asks some very troubling questions

The coronavirus is slowly retreating. What actually happened in the past few weeks? The experts have missed basic connections. The immune response against the virus is much stronger than we thought.

This is not an accusation, but a ruthless taking stock [of the current situation]. I could slap myself, because I looked at Sars-CoV2- way too long with panic. I am also somewhat annoyed with many of my immunology colleagues who so far have left the discussion about Covid-19 to virologist and epidemiologist. I feel it is time to criticise some of the main and completely wrong public statements about this virus.

Firstly, it was wrong to claim that this virus was novel. Secondly, It was even more wrong to claim that the population would not already have some immunity against this virus. Thirdly, it was the crowning of stupidity to claim that someone could have Covid-19 without any symptoms at all or even to pass the disease along without showing any symptoms whatsoever.

But let’s look at this one by one.

1. A new virus?

At the end of 2019 a coronavirus, which was considered novel, was detected in China. When the gene sequence, i.e. the blueprint of this virus, was identified and was given a similar name to the 2002 identified Sars, i.e. Sars-CoV-2, we should have already asked ourselves then how far [this virus] is related to other coronaviri, which can make human beings sick. But no, instead we discussed from which animal as part of a Chinese menu the virus might have sprung. In the meantime, however, many more people believe the Chinese were so stupid as to release this virus upon themselves in their own country. Now that we’re talking about developing a vaccine against the virus, we suddenly see studies which show that this so-called novel virus is very strongly related to Sars-1 as well as other beta-coronaviri which make us suffer every year in the form of a colds. Apart from the pure homologies in the sequence between the various coronaviri which can make people sick, [scientists] currently work on identifying a number of areas on the virus in the same way as human immune cells identify them. This is no longer about the genetic relationship, but about how our immune system sees this virus, i.e. which parts of other coronaviri could potentially be used in a vaccine.

So: Sars-Cov-2 isn’t all that new, but merely a seasonal cold virus that mutated and disappears in summer, as all cold viri do — which is what we’re observing globally right now. Flu viri mutate significantly more, by the way, and nobody would ever claim that a new flu virus strain was completely novel. Many veterinary doctors where therefore annoyed by this claim of novelty, as they have been vaccinating cats, dogs, pigs, and cows for years against coronaviri.

2. The fairy tale of no immunity

From the World Health Organisation (WHO) to every Facebook-virologist, everyone claimed this virus was particularly dangerous, because there was no immunity against it, because it was a novel virus. Even Anthony Fauci, the most important advisor to the Trump administration noted at the beginning at every public appearance that the danger of the virus lay in the fact that there was no immunity against it. Tony and I often sat next to each other at immunology seminars at the National Institute of Health in Bethesda in the US, because we worked in related fields back then. So for a while I was pretty uncritical of his statements, since he was a respectable colleague of mine. The penny dropped only when I realised that the first commercially available antibody test [for Sars-CoV-2] was put together from an old antibody test that was meant to detect Sars-1. This kind of test evaluates if there are antibodies in someone’s blood and if they came about through an early fight against the virus. [Scientists] even extracted antibodies from a Lama that would detect Sars-1, Sars-CoV-2, and even the Mers virus. It also became known that Sars-CoV-2 had a less significant impact in areas in China where Sars-1 had previously raged. This is clear evidence urgently suggesting that our immune system considers Sars-1 and Sars-Cov-2 at least partially identical and that one virus could probably protect us from the other.

That’s when I realised that the entire world simply claimed that there was no immunity, but in reality, nobody had a test ready to prove such a statement. That wasn’t science, but pure speculation based on a gut feeling that was then parroted by everyone. To this day there isn’t a single antibody test that can describe all possible immunological situations, such as: if someone is immune, since when, what the neutralising antibodies are targeting and how many structures exist on other coronaviri that can equally lead to immunity.

In mid-April work was published by the group of Andreas Thiel at the Charité Berlin. A paper with 30 authors, amongst them the virologist Christian Drosten. It showed that in 34 % of people in Berlin who had never been in contact with the Sars-CoV-2 virus showed nonetheless T-cell immunity against it (T-cell immunity is a different kind of immune reaction, see below). This means that our T-cells, i.e. white blood cells, detect common structures appearing on Sars-CoV-2 and regular cold viri and therefore combat both of them.

A study by John P A Ioannidis of Stanford University — according to the Einstein Foundation in Berlin one of the world’s ten most cited scientists — showed that immunity against Sars-Cov-2, measured in the form of antibodies, is much higher than previously thought. Ioannidis is certainly not a conspiracy theorist who just wants to swim against the stream; nontheless he is now being criticised, because the antibody tests used were not extremely precise. With that, his critics admit that they do not have such tests yet. And aside, John P A Ioannidis is such a scientific heavy-weight that all German virologists combined area a light-weight in comparison.
3. The failure of modellers

Epidemiologist also fell for the myth that there was no immunity in the population. They also didn’t want to believe that coronaviri were seasonal cold viri that would disappear in summer. Otherwise their curve models would have looked differently. When the initial worst case scenarios didn’t come true anywhere, some now still cling to models predicting a second wave. Let’s leave them their hopes — I’ve never seen a scientific branch that manoeuvred itself so much into the offside. I have also not yet understood why epidemiologists were so much more interested in the number of deaths, rather than in the numbers that could be saved.

4. Immunology of common sense

As an immunologist I trust a biological model, namely that of the human organism, which has built a tried and tested, adaptive immune system. At the end of February, driving home from the recording of [a Swiss political TV debate show], I mentioned to Daniel Koch [former head of the Swiss federal section “Communicable Diseases” of the Federal Office of Public Health] that I suspected there was a general immunity in the population against Sars-Cov-2. He argued against my view. I later defended him anyway, when he said that children were not a driving factor in the spread of the pandemic. He suspected that children didn’t have a receptor for the virus, which is of course nonsense. Still, we had to admit that his observations were correct. But the fact that every scientist attacked him afterwards and asked for studies to prove his point, was somewhat ironic. Nobody asked for studies to prove that people in certain at-risk groups were dying. When the first statistics from China and later worldwide data showed the same trend, that is to say that almost no children under ten years old got sick, everyone should have made the argument that children clearly have to be immune. For every other disease that doesn’t afflict a certain group of people, we would come to the conclusion that that group is immune. When people are sadly dying in a retirement home, but in the same place other pensioners with the same risk factors are left entirely unharmed, we should also conclude that they were presumably immune.

But this common sense seems to have eluded many, let’s call them “immunity deniers” just for fun. This new breed of deniers had to observe that the majority of people who tested positive for this virus, i.e. the virus was present in their throats, did not get sick. The term “silent carriers” was conjured out of a hat and it was claimed that one could be sick without having symptoms. Wouldn’t that be something! If this principle from now on gets naturalised into the realm of medicine, health insurers would really have a problem, but also teachers whose students could now claim to have whatever disease to skip school, if at the end of the day one didn’t need symptoms anymore to be sick.

The next joke that some virologists shared was the claim that those who were sick without symptoms could still spread the virus to other people. The “healthy” sick would have so much of the virus in their throats that a normal conversation between two people would be enough for the “healthy one” to infect the other healthy one. At this point we have to dissect what is happening here: If a virus is growing anywhere in the body, also in the throat, it means that human cells decease. When [human] cells decease, the immune system is alerted immediately and an infection is caused. One of five cardinal symptoms of an infection is pain. It is understandable that those afflicted by Covid-19 might not remember that initial scratchy throat and then go on to claim that they didn’t have any symptoms just a few days ago. But for doctors and virologists to twist this into a story of “healthy” sick people, which stokes panic and was often given as a reason for stricter lockdown measures, just shows how bad the joke really is. At least the WHO didn’t accept the claim of asymptomatic infections and even challenges this claim on its website.

Here a succinct and brief summary, especially for the immunity deniers, of how humans are attacked by germs and how we react to them: If there are pathogenic viri in our environment, then all humans — whether immune or not — are attacked by this virus. If someone is immune, the battle with the virus begins. First we try to prevent the virus from binding to our own cells with the help of antibodies. This normally works only partially, not all are blocked and some viri will attach to the appropriate cells. That doesn’t need to lead to symptoms, but it’s also not a disease. Because the second guard of the immune system is now called into action. That’s the above mentioned T-cells, white blood cells, which can determine from the outside in which other cells the virus is now hiding to multiply. These cells, which are now incubating the virus, are searched throughout the entire body and killed by the T-cells until the last virus is dead.

So if we do a PCR corona test on an immune person, it is not a virus that is detected, but a small shattered part of the viral genome. The test comes back positive for as long as there are tiny shattered parts of the virus left. Correct: Even if the infectious viri are long dead, a corona test can come back positive, because the PCR method multiplies even a tiny fraction of the viral genetic material enough [to be detected]. That’s exactly what happened, when there was the global news, even shared by the WHO, that 200 Koreans who already went through Covid-19 were infected a second time and that there was therefore probably no immunity against this virus. The explanation of what really happened and an apology came only later, when it was clear that the immune Koreans were perfectly healthy and only had a short battle with the virus. The crux was that the virus debris registered with the overly sensitive test and therefore came back as “positive”. It is likely that a large number of the daily reported infection numbers are purely due to viral debris.

The PCR test with its extreme sensitivity was initially perfect to find out where the virus could be. But this test can not identify whether the virus is still alive, i.e. still infectous. Unfortunately, this also led some virologists to equate the strength of a test result with viral load, i.e. the amount of virus someone can breathe out. Luckily, our day care centres stayed open nontheless. Since German virologist missed that part, because, out of principle, they do not look at what other countries are doing, even if other countries’ case numbers are falling more rapidly.

5. The problem with corona immunity

What does this all mean in real life? The extremely long incubation time of two to 14 days — and reports of 22 to 27 days — should wake up any immunologist. As well as the claim that most patients would no longer secrete the virus after five days. Both [claims] in turn actually lead to the conclusion that there is — sort of in the background — a base immunity that contorts the events, compared to an expected cycle [of a viral infection] — i.e. leads to a long incubation period and quick immunity. This immunity also seems to be the problem for patients with a sever course of the disease. Our antibody titre, i.e. the accuracy of our defence system, is reduced the older we get. But also people with a bad diet or who are malnourished may have a weakened immune system, which is why this virus does not only reveal the medical problems of a country, but also social issues.

If an infected person does not have enough antibodies, i.e. a weak immune response, the virus slowly spreads out across the entire body. Now that there are not enough antibodies, there is only the second, supporting leg of our immune response left: The T-cells beginn to attack the virus-infested cells all over the body. This can lead to an exaggerated immune response, basically to a massive slaughter; this is called a Cytokine Storm. Very rarely this can also happen in small children, in that case called Kawasaki Syndrome. This very rare occurrence in children was also used in our country to stoke panic. It’s interesting, however, that this syndrome is very easily cured. The [affected] children get antibodies from healthy blood donors, i.e. people who went through coronavirus colds. This means that the hushed-up [supposedly non-existent] immunity in the population is in fact used therapeutically.
What now?

The virus is gone for now. It will probably come back in winter, but it won’t be a second wave, but just a cold. Those young and healthy people who currently walk around with a mask on their faces would be better off wearing a helmet instead, because the risk of something falling on their head is greater than that of getting a serious case of Covid-19.

If we observe a significant rise in infections in 14 days [after the Swiss relaxed the lockdown], we’d at least know that one of the measures was useful. Other than that I recommend reading John P A Ioannidis’ latest work in which he describes the global situation based on data on May 1st 2020: People below 65 years old make up only 0.6 to 2.6 % of all fatal Covid cases. To get on top of the pandemic, we need a strategy merely concentrating on the protection of at-risk people over 65. If that’s the opinion of a top expert, a second lockdown is simply a no-go.

On our way back to normal, it would be good for us citizens if a few scaremongers apologised. Such as doctors who wanted a triage of over 80 year old Covid patients in order to stop ventilating them. Also media that kept showing alarmist videos of Italian hospitals to illustrate a situation that as such didn’t exist. All politicians calling for “testing, testing, testing” without even knowing what the test actually measures. And the federal government for an app they’ll never get to work and will warn me if someone near me is positive, even if they’re not infectious.

In winter, when the flu and other colds make the rounds again, we can then go back to kissing each other a little less, and we should wash our hands even without a virus present. And people who’ll get sick nonetheless can then don their masks to show others what they have learned from this pandemic. And if we still haven’t learned to protect our at-risk groups, we’ll have to wait for a vaccine that will hopefully also be effective in at-risk people.

SOURCE 

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IN BRIEF

A direct threat to the Democrat Party's stronghold on black voters: Kanye West says he's running for president (Politico)

Trump to hold outdoor New Hampshire rally on July 11 while Biden remains perpetually sequestered (Fox News)

Joe Biden tops Donald Trump in fundraising for second straight month: $141 million to $131 million (USA Today)

Supreme Court agrees to hear legal showdown over Mueller grand jury materials (CBS News)

Los Angeles Times publishes Beijing-funded propaganda (The Daily Caller)

Baltimore mayor defends vandals who toppled Christopher Columbus statue on July 4th (The Daily Caller)

Maryland governor urges Baltimore leaders to "regain control of their own streets" after Columbus statue toppled (Washington Examiner)

Atlanta mayor unloads after eight-year-old child is killed near BLM protest site: "You can't blame this on police" (Fox News)

Racists baiting racists: Armed protesters demonstrate in front of Confederate carving on Stone Mountain (Washington Examiner)

Black Lives Matter "protesters" filmed dancing on American flag in Washington, DC (The Daily Caller)

Frederick Douglass statue in New York removed from base and damaged (Washington Examiner)

Senate approves sanctions against Chinese officials over Hong Kong law (Washington Examiner)

With Beijing's military nearby, U.S. sends two aircraft carriers to South China Sea (The New York Times)

Niagara Falls region becomes ground zero in the coronavirus-era war on drugs (Washington Examiner)

Putting the coronavirus surge in Florida in context (The Daily Signal)

Texas governor mandates masks in most counties (Washington Examiner)

Extended lockdowns pose a serious threat to mental health (The Daily Signal)

Colin Kaepernick condemns July 4th as "celebration of white supremacy" (The Daily Caller)

NFL's Washington Redskins and MLB's Cleveland Indians are rethinking their names (NPR)

Report: NFL to play "black national anthem" prior to Week 1 games (Sports Illustrated)

Minnesota governor asks Trump for disaster declaration after George Floyd riots trigger over $500 million in damages (Fox News)

"Statuary sanctuary city": Ohio town offers to house any statues other cities remove (Washington Examiner)

U.S. population growth is driven only by minorities with the white population declining for the first time in the nation's history, according to new census data (UK Daily Mail)

New jobs report suggests Americans are eager to return to work after lockdown (The Daily Signal)

Policy: A deeper look at Black Lives Matter and its impact (The Daily Signal)

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For more blog postings from me, see  TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL, GREENIE WATCH,  POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, and Paralipomena (Occasionally updated), A Coral reef compendium and an IQ compendium. (Both updated as news items come in).  GUN WATCH is now mainly put together by Dean Weingarten. I also put up occasional updates on my Personal blog and each day I gather together my most substantial current writings on THE PSYCHOLOGIST.

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