Many US states have seen LOWER infection rates after ending lockdowns that are are now destroying millions of livelihoods

Coronavirus lockdowns have 'destroyed millions of livelihoods' but failed to alter the course of the pandemic -- given many US states have seen lower infection rates after easing restrictions, a JP Morgan study has claimed.

The statistical analysis has raised questions about the effectiveness of the lockdowns put in place across much of the United States two months ago to stop the spread of COVID-19.

It suggests that the lockdown measures have not only resulted in economic devastation but could have also resulted in more COVID-19 deaths.

The strict stay-at-home measures put in place by the governors of most states in mid-March has so far seen nearly 39 million American lose their jobs and forced businesses to close.

There are now more than 1.6 million infections in the US and over 95,000 deaths.

'Unlike rigorous testing of potential new drugs, lockdowns were administered with little consideration that they might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than COVID-19 itself,' author Marko Kolanovic, a trained physicist and a strategist for JP Morgan, said. 

The report also includes a chart showing that 'the vast majority of countries had decreased infection rates' after lockdowns were lifted.

The JP Morgan report says that restarting the US economy may not lead to a second surge in infections that health experts have feared given the falling infections rates seen since lockdown measures were lifted in parts of the country.

Infection rates have continued to decline even once a lag period for new infections to become visible is factored in, according to the report. 

The R rate is the average number of people who will become infected by one person with the virus. Researchers and health experts have said a rate below 1.0 is a key indicator that the spread of the virus has been maintained.

Reproduction rate data from Rt.live on Friday showed that all but two states had lowered the rate of infection.

According to that data, Minnesota's R rate was 1.01 and North Dakota's was at 1.02. 

The report also includes a chart showing that 'the vast majority of countries had decreased infection rates' after lockdowns were lifted. The chart, however, doesn't specify which country is which.

All 50 states have at least partially reopened this week by relaxing restrictions on businesses and social distancing in varying degrees across the country.

Kolanovic said governments had been spooked by 'flawed scientific papers' into imposing lockdowns that were 'inefficient or late' and had little effect.

'While we often hear that lockdowns are driven by scientific models, and that there is an exact relationship between the level of economic activity and the spread of [the] virus - this is not supported by the data,' the report says.

'Indeed, virtually everywhere infection rates have declined after re-opening even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.

'This means that the pandemic and COVID-19 likely have (their) own dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures that were being implemented.'

Those dynamics may be influenced by increased hand-washing and even weather patterns but seemingly not by full-scale lockdowns, the report suggests. 

'The fact that re-opening did not change the course of the pandemic is consistent with studies showing that initiation of full lockdowns did not alter the course of the pandemic either,' it says. 

The JP Morgan analysis linked the decision to impose lockdowns to 'flawed scientific papers' predicting millions of deaths in the West. 

'This on its own was odd, given that in China there were only several thousand deaths, and the mortality rate outside of Wuhan was very low,' the report says.

'In the absence of conclusive data, these lockdowns were justified initially. Nonetheless, many of these efforts were inefficient or late.' 

Kolanovic says that lockdowns had remained in place even as 'our knowledge of the virus and lack of effectiveness of total lockdowns evolved'.

'Despite the conditions for re-opening being mostly met across the US, it is not yet happening in the largest economic regions for example California and New York,' he said.

'While our knowledge of the virus and lack of effectiveness of total lockdowns evolved, lockdowns remained in place and focus shifted to contact tracing, contemplating second wave of outbreaks and ideas about designing better education, political and economic systems.

'At the same time, millions of livelihoods were being destroyed by these lockdowns.'

The US and other countries in lockdown are having to blow huge holes in their budgets to counter the economic standstill that is forcing millions of people into unemployment. 

The report cites 'worrying populism' as an obstacle to re-opening the economy, for example in the US where senators passed an anti-China measure this week.   

It warns that economic activity in the US is 'now largely following partisan lines' as Republican and Democratic governors adopt different strategies for their states.

As well as casting doubt on the wisdom of imposing lockdowns in the first place, the report suggests that economies could now be re-opened more quickly.

In other parts of the world, Denmark is among the countries that has started re-opening its economy without seeing a new surge in virus cases. 

Zoos, museums and cinemas have re-opened early in Denmark with many children now back at school after scientists said the R rate had continued to fall. 

Germany has also been confident enough to scale back the lockdown after the R rate mostly stayed below 1.0 following an initial lifting of restrictions.

However, chancellor Angela Merkel has repeatedly urged caution and warned that a second wave of virus cases could leave hospitals overwhelmed.

The UK government has similarly warned that some restrictions could be re-imposed if there is a 'sudden and concerning' rise in new cases.

Sweden has never imposed a lockdown, and its per-capita death rate is better than Britain's - although worse than that of its Scandinavian neighbours. 

SOURCE 

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Across the Wide, Growing American Divide
 
Red- and blue-state America was already divided before the coronavirus epidemic hit. Globalization had enriched the East Coast and West Coast corridors but hollowed out much in between.

The traditional values of small towns and rural counties were increasingly at odds with postmodern lifestyles in the cities.

There were, of course, traditionalists in blue states. And lots of progressives live in red states. But people increasingly self-segregate to where they feel at home and where politics, jobs and culture reflect their tastes.

The ensuing left/right, liberal/conservative, Democrat/Republican divide not only intensified in the 21st century, it also took on a dangerous geographical separatism.

The coasts vs. the interior reflects two Americas — often in a manner similar to the old Mason-Dixon line that geographically split the U.S. for roughly a century.

Liberals scoff at the deplorables and irredeemables for embracing an ossified, unchanging 18th-century Constitution. The red-staters supposedly cling to their weird, dangerous habits such as owning guns and opposing abortion, while adhering to paleolithic ideas of small government, secure borders and don’t-tread-on-me individualism.

Blue-staters are confident that progressive citizens of the world like themselves are where the global action, money and future lie. And who could doubt the success of Silicon Valley’s wealthy tech companies, Wall Street’s investment giants or internationally respected universities such as Harvard, MIT, Caltech and Stanford?

Progressives believe the story of America has most often been one of discrimination, original sin and a need for constant repentance and reparations for a flawed past.

Conservatives feel just the opposite — that one does not have to perfect to be good, and that America is far better than anywhere else.

Red-staters contend that many blue states are broke and need bailouts to ensure that their generous pensions and entitlements don’t wither away into insolvency.

Cities are often seen by those in less densely populated areas as dirty, full of homeless people, dangerous and ungovernable.

Red-staters also see failed statist ideas the world over. For them, China, the European Union and much of Africa and Latin America are proof that democratic socialism is neither fair nor compassionate.

Conservatives welcome in immigrants, but only if they come legally, assimilate to U.S. values and arrive in manageable numbers to be integrated.

When the virus hit, these divides intensified.

Blue-state governors wanted long lockdowns, red-state governors not so much.

Elite professionals, state employees and the wealthy residents of the coasts feel they can easily ride out a bad recession. They believe that even a miniscule chance of dying from the virus still makes it too risky to go out.

Yet in red states, there are many self-employed people and small-business owners who are always at risk on the margins. They believe they have great odds to beat the virus but not to beat a more deadly depression.

The 2020 election is the unspoken force multiplier of the divide. Blue-state politicians believe that if the lockdown continues, the country won’t recover before November. Donald Trump will then be blamed for the downturn. They hope for a replay of the 1932 election, with Trump as Depression-era Herbert Hoover vs. a progressive challenger with big promises of more programs and larger government.

Progressives also want more connectivity with the world abroad to beat the virus. They rely on elite researchers, statisticians and epidemiologists to chart and predict the course of the epidemic.

Conservatives are convinced that entrepreneurs and individuals will better save us. Most elites, they believe, were wrong in their modeling, their predictions and their advice about the contagion. Many conservatives think that the best and brightest had little practical experience, less common sense and did not live in the real world.

Red-staters look at the lies of the Chinese, the enabling deceptions of the World Health Organization and the initial failures of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. They conclude that transnational organizations are sometimes incompetent and corrupt, and that even our own bureaucracies are too unimaginative, sluggish, haughty and territorial.

Is there any agreement between red-state and blue-state America?

Perhaps.

Red-staters are not flocking to blue-state urban corridors, where the virus hit hardest. They are happy to live in less crowded places, rely on their own cars, have detached homes and be free of government edicts that often make little sense other than to showcase the dictatorial powers of petty bureaucrats and local officials.

Even blue-staters are beginning to see their mass transit, high-rise living and clogged streets more as incubators of disease than as the circulatory system of an exciting, high-end life.

Perhaps in this time of plague, Americans can at least agree that the romance of Arcadia is suddenly preferable to the allure of big-city lights.

SOURCE 

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IN BRIEF

Barack Obama's Treasury Department spied on Trump associates (Power Line)

Senators "dramatically expanding" probe into Obama-era scandal, think surveillance may have started "even earlier" than 2016 (The Daily Wire)

Michael Flynn attorney files emergency appeal to shut down Judge Sullivan's orders and boot him from case (Fox News)

Deregulator-in-chief: Trump signs broad order to speed deregulation and relax red tape for economic recovery (The Washington Times)

Joe Biden's pledge to dump Keystone XL pipeline would kill thousands of jobs and prevent millions in local tax revenue (The Washington Free Beacon)

Federal judge rules that all Texans must have access to absentee ballots (Washington Examiner)

Georgia apologizes over "processing error" after accusations officials were manipulating coronavirus case counts (Fox News)

"There is no pandemic exception to the U.S. Constitution and its Bill of Rights": DOJ warns California governor over discriminatory church closings (Reuters)

Planned Parenthood affiliates improperly applied for and received $80 million in coronavirus stimulus funds (Fox News)

Wearing a face mask can reduce coronavirus transmission by up to 75%, study says (Fox News)

Anti-China sentiment is on the rise — 31% says the ChiComs are enemies, up 11% since January (Politico)

For the fifth consecutive year, U.S. birth rates decline, now at lowest level in 35 years (Today)

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