'Show us the evidence': Scientists call for clarity on claim that new Covid-19 variant strain is 70% more contagious
Boris Johnson was last night urged to publish clear evidence of the Covid data he used to cancel Christmas for millions.
The Prime Minister has warned the new variant of coronavirus may be up to 70 per cent more transmissible than previous strains and could overwhelm the NHS.
But last night one scientist demanded greater transparency over the number that shut down swathes of the UK.
Carl Heneghan, Professor of Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford University's Nuffield Department of Primary Care, expressed scepticism over the 70 per cent figure.
He said: 'I've been doing this job for 25 years and I can tell you can't establish a quantifiable number in such a short time frame.'
He added 'every expert is saying it's too early to draw such an inference'.
Professor Heneghan said there was no doubt this time of the year, the 'height of the viral season', was a difficult time for the NHS. But he said failure to put out the basis of the figures was undermining public trust.
He added: 'I would want to have very clear evidence rather than 'we think it's more transmissible' so we can see if it is or not.
'It has massive implications, it's causing fear and panic, but we should not be in this situation when the Government is putting out data that is unquantifiable.'
He added: 'They are fitting the data to the evidence. They see cases rising and they are looking for evidence to explain it.'
The new variant was found on September 20 in Kent.
By mid-November, 28 per cent of cases in London were attributable to it. And in the week starting December 9, it was responsible for 62 per cent.
Professor Heneghan said that if it was true the new variant was more transmissible 'we should be locking down the whole country' as people leaving the capital to avoid restrictions would spread it.
Announcing the new Tier Four restrictions, Boris Johnson blamed the new Covid strain and said 'it may be up to 70 per cent more transmissible than the old variant'.
He also said the new virus could boost the reproduction rate – known as R – by 0.4. When R is above 1 the virus is increasing. If it is below 1, it is decreasing.
Mr Johnson said the figure, which came from analysis by government advisory body The New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), was 'early data' and 'subject to review'. But he added: 'It's the best we have at the moment.
'We have to act on information as we have it because this is spreading very fast.'
Peter Horby, chairman of Nervtag and Professor of Emerging Infectious Diseases at the Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health at the University of Oxford, said the figure of 70 per cent was based on 'converging data'.
He said: 'This is including, but not limited to, the rate of change in the frequency of detection of the variant (the growth rate) and the correlation between R values and the frequency of detection of the new variant.'
Minutes from the Nervtag meeting from December 18 said they had 'moderate confidence' that the new variant, known as VUI-202012/01, 'demonstrates a substantial increase in transmissibility compared to other variants'.
The variant demonstrated exponential growth when national lockdown measures were in place, the minutes added.
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Australian Bureau of Statistics: Australian deaths, 1 January to 27 October 2020
The coronavirus has actually SAVED lives. It has wiped out some of the elderly but the rest of the population is doing fine
Deaths have been lower than average during the winter months in 2020.
Respiratory disease deaths have been lower than historical minimums since June.
Throughout this report, counts of deaths for 2020 are compared to an average number of deaths recorded over the previous 5 years (2015-2019). These average or baseline counts serve as a proxy for the expected number of deaths, so comparisons against baseline counts can provide an indication of excess mortality. The minimum and maximum counts from 2015-19 are also included to provide an indication of the range of previous counts. Minimums and maximums for any given week can be from any of the five years from 2015-19.
Deaths remained below historical averages since mid May, although the difference temporarily narrowed in late July and mid August. The number of deaths typically declines during spring with the end of the influenza season. Despite the lack of a severe 2020 influenza season, the number of deaths has followed traditional patterns, declining during the spring months.
Deaths were below the historical minimum range for most of June and July, late August and since mid September. Between 3 June and 27 October, there have been 57,939 deaths, 3,388 below the average of 61,327.
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Rep. Kevin Hern: Capitalism pulled me out of poverty, why can't AOC admit it saved her, too?
It is well-documented that my colleague, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., worked in the service industry before running for Congress. It’s part of the reason why she gained so much traction with young people in her party.
To be honest, I admire her ambition and think it should be applauded that she has found such success. It’s only possible in America.
What’s less well-known is that she is far from the first person to make that economic jump and that there are several sitting members of Congress who come from much poorer backgrounds and worked their way to prosperity.
No one wants to talk about it because we’re conservative. We believe that capitalism is what pulled us out of poverty and we want to maintain that system for future Americans.
The beauty of America is that anything is possible. No matter what economic class you are born into, there is an opportunity to turn yourself into anything, if you are willing to work for it. There’s no limit to what you can achieve with a big idea and a strong work ethic.
There are not many people in Congress who can testify to that statement quite like I can.
For many years of my childhood, we didn’t have electricity or running water, because my mom and stepdad couldn’t afford to pay the bill.
I remember coming home from elementary school not knowing if we’d have food for dinner most nights. I was mocked by my classmates for my worn-out clothes. I was looked down on for receiving free lunches at school. We were constantly moving from house to house because my stepdad never made the rent.
Rep. Ocasio-Cortez and I walked through similar doors of opportunity, a door called capitalism, but she wants to permanently shut that door to everyone behind her.
That didn’t stop me from dreaming. In fact, it motivated me. It inspired me to work so hard that my future family would never live like that.
To that end, I went to work and I worked hard. I earned an architectural drafting certificate while still in high school to earn money for college. I earned a degree in engineering and started working in aerospace.
My career took a detour when the Space Shuttle Challenger blew up, changing the aerospace industry forever. I was out of a job and didn’t know what was next when I first learned about the opportunities available as a McDonald’s franchisee.
What AOC and far-left have done for Democrats: SmithVideo
I spent 10 years flipping burgers at McDonald's while saving up $100,000 to buy my first restaurant in the franchise system. I wasn’t just flipping burgers, though. I worked every role in the store, from the cash register to the fryer to the drive-through.
I was learning the management side as well, every aspect of running a McDonald's. In my spare time, what little I had, I was writing code, developing real estate, pig farming – any small job I could do to save up for that first restaurant.
Rep. Ocasio-Cortez likes to tell people that Republicans make fun of her for being a waitress, but you can imagine the condescending comments and ridicule I get for McDonald’s?
No doubt about it, I’m the butt of endless jokes. People call me the ‘McCongressman’ and trivialize my real-world experience because it’s tied to the golden arches.
It doesn’t bother me because the McDonald’s franchise program helped me realize my American Dream. I’ve embraced the nickname ‘Big Mac’ and I share my ‘secret sauce’ to success with anyone who wants to listen.
America is a one-of-a-kind place. We are lucky to live in a land of opportunity, where someone like me can build a multi-million-dollar company after growing up with absolutely nothing, where someone like Rep. Ocasio-Cortez can bartend one day and be elected to Congress the next.
She and I walked through similar doors of opportunity, a door called capitalism, but she wants to permanently shut that door to everyone behind her.
The American Dream is achievable for those who are willing to work for it. The same opportunities I had 40 years ago are still available today, but they’re in danger.
We must fiercely protect and defend those opportunities from socialist policies that would destroy us in pursuit of ill-conceived ideas that have repeatedly destroyed the countries who employ them.
What we’re seeing in California and New York under hypocritical COVID mandates is the future that Rep. Ocasio-Cortez and her colleagues want.
The American entrepreneurial spirit will be crushed under their policies and the American Dream will die a tragic death.
It’s easy to promote impossible ideas and ride them to fame, but the danger comes when people expect you to act on them; you can never live up to those promises. Socialism has long been a dirty word because of the very real destruction it has caused across the globe.
Nevertheless, Rep. Ocasio-Cortez wants you to believe that this time will be different. We can’t afford to find out.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/capitalism-poverty-aoc-kevin-hern
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